A friend of mine asked me the other day about my sentiment on the future global economic course. Well, I said: to put it simply and bluntly, we're all screwed. Naturally, we're not screwed all equally, but in very near future, everybody will have to make some significant lifestyle adjustments. The billionaires, for example will have to absorb the hardest hit, as they'll have to downgrade themselves to the lousy multimillionaires. The multimillionaires will become only the millionaires and the rest of us? The middle class - upper or lower alike, will become an extinct species, but their place will take the much stronger brand new social group: working poor. The current poor class will most likely die of various diseases, starvation and mass suicides, while some of them might try to survive by the means of committing crime.But, I can promise you this: "the new order" won't last for too long before the GAME'S ALL OVER.
Recently, you might have heard the politicians and financial analysts agree on an obvious: the global economic recovery has lost its momentum (as if it has ever gained any) and it is not at all going as well as predicted. Some even suggest, a double-dip recession is increasingly a risk. Well, from where I stand, I can see clearly, they're feeding us with the same bullshit over and over again. "Nothing to be worried about. What we are witnessing is just a normal economic slowdown, nothing new, a part of the predictable cycle". Yah, right! The indicators from Europe, North America and Asia point to the ever increasing jobless numbers, orders for manufactured goods are steadily decreasing, world stock markets are crashing, gross domestic product is reading zero growth around the globe. The governments, the corporations and the individual are in such an enormous debt, simply too huge to be ever paid off (only in USA the total debts between those three groups reached 30 trillion Dollars). So, "make no mistake" (to borrow Obama's favorite opening to his unconvincing statements) - what we're currently experiencing is not just another global financial crisis - it is an irreversible global systemic meltdown and nothing could be done about that.
About a year ago I wrote in one of my articles: "The world is on the doorstep of severe economic, financial and social crisis of unprecedented proportions. We are facing a downturn on such a scale that nobody have ever seen or heard about and which would eventually lead to the total structural meltdown and the end of the civilization as we know it. No longer there will be a state social assistance or health care available, the monetary system will cease to exist and people's hard earned cash savings and retirement funds won't be worth the paper they're printed on. No fuel at the gas stations, no electricity, no clean water running from your tap. Supermarkets plundered and a critical shortage of all life necessities. No functional justice and court system or police enforcement - just state of chaos and anarchy. The whole structure is rotten beyond repair and there is no way out - no "quick fix", no the long term alternative either - in a nutshell: THERE IS NO SOLUTION! Western capitalism is on its last leg, this model has outlived its usefulness and it's time to get ready for its funeral. And if someone thinks, just I used to do: "I won't live long enough to see it", well, think again! It's already in progress. The fundamental question is not "If" but "When?" How much time do we have left? 2 years? 10 years? Perhaps 20? Nobody knows. But quite frankly, what different does it make? We can't control inevitable - it is a runaway train and nobody can stop it now."
Well, today, a year and half later, I still fully indorse those of my initial statements, but at this time, I can throw in some appeasing remarks that actually project a flickering, tiny light at the end of the tunnel. First of all, there's a very good news for those folks in my age group (let's say, 55 and over): we don't necessary need to hold our breath - with a little bit of luck, we'll be all dead before the worst extremities emerge. Also, even though I previously said there was no solution, I came up with a couple of ingenious inspirations, how to resolve this problem. The first one is an ultimate one, swift and very effective. Yes, I am talking about a global military confrontation, videlicet WWIII. Not too many people are in favor of this alternative, perhaps they feel it's a little bit too extreme and because there are also a few minor downsides, beside the obvious benefits. One huge advantage that comes to my mind - a planet overpopulation related issues would be resolved practically instantly, which I consider to be a very positive outcome. Other undisputable asset would be a necessity to rebuild everything from a scratch, resulting in a high demand not only for a substantial labour force in practically all sectors, but also a requirement for any available natural resources, raw materials, and other commodities. On the other hand, the surviving population would almost certainly have to face a markedly inconvenient shortage of employable, productive human resources (I reckon, not too many of those would be still romping around) and of course for about 5730 years following the thermonuclear reaction there'll be some minor challenges for humans due to the rather difficult, uninhabitable living conditions on the earth.
The less effective, slower and unfortunately only temporary alternative would be an immediate abandonment of the worthless, ill-fated globalization process. In the long run, it would trigger off the previous scenario as well, but probably not too soon. See, the globalization (superimposed by the greediness) might be just as well the root of evil that brought us into this catastrophic situation. In the functional free enterprise capitalism model, the mass production directly depends on the mass consumption. Unfortunatelly, there's an adverse byproduct of the globalization in a extremely popular strategy - an outsourcing of the manufacturing labour, customer service and even research capacities to the third world countries. As a result, most of the "developed" countries suffer a massive increase of unemployment rates, which naturally reflects in lost state revenues (limited funds from income and sales tax coming in), while demand for a social assistance for the unemployed population is constantly growing. Consumers confidence and their spending habits shift to the reverse which negatively implicates in even lower demand for manufactured goods, and induces sales losses in the service sector as well. The one without a job and a paycheque, doesn't hand over the taxes, doesn't go out dinning or shopping for goodies and has to forbear the services of the hairdresser, drycleaner, manicurist and so on. So, now it is just about time to suspend all the import and restore the good old orders - purchasing and consuming only the locally grown and manufactured products. Like it or not, this trend is inevitable anyhow and within a few years (providing we won't nuke each other to death by then) will be adopted all over the world. The ridiculous fantasy of the world as a global village will be dead, and rightfully so. Why? A couple of reasons. As soon, as the cost of the crude oil reaches $200 per barrel (and more), the advantage of a cheap labor in the third world countries will be lost to the extremely high transportation cost of raw materials, semi- and the final products back and forth. Not to mention, there is a growing movement in those poor countries to organize the labour unions in order to acquire better working conditions and yes - the higher wages as well. Sooner or later, we will be forced to build new or to reopen the old manufacturing plants, and start using all the avail agricultural resources to grow our food locally. Unfortunately, hundreds of millions workers in those developing countries will be laid off and as their economic miracles burst like bubbles, once again - the only way out of that mess will be to unleash a world war.
No, the future doesn't look too peachy for us - the Earth dwellers and I offer my sincere apologies in the case I've dragged you out of your cozy comfort zone. But, I got the feeling, you already knew, didn't you?
Have a good day!
M.
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